You know what they say about opinions, everyone has one, so I might as well share mine. Now of course the usual gambling disclaimer – I guarantee no successful wagering from these predictions. Any losses are your problem. But 10% of your winnings are mine. Fair enough? Great, keep reading! :)

Odds from Bodog.com.

Mike Pierce -250 vs Amilcar Alves +190
I’m liking Alves in this fight. Pierce is a tough SOB, no doubt about it. His only 3 losses are all via decision, and two of those against the likes of Jon Fitch in 2009 and Mark Munoz in 2007. In decisions, he’s 5-3. Alves, on the other hand, is 4-0 in decisions – his only loss coming by way of submission. Now, agreed, Alvess’ wins are against nobody you’ve ever heard of, but I see this being a war with Alves as the winner. Another reason to bet Alves? He trains with the likes of Jose Aldo, Thales Leites, Vitor Ribeiro, Wagnney Fabiano, and Marlon Sandro. The only training partner I can find of Pierce of mention is Rick Story. Another reason to bet Alves? Did you see the weigh in? Alves is much larger than Pierce and although I hate to admit it myself sometimes, size DOES matter. While this is certainly a close fight, I like Alves for a play.

John Salter +235 vs Dan Miller -295
I think we’ll finally get to see what Salter is truly made of in this tough matchup for him. His debut was a last minute replacement loss for him to Gerald Harris so you can’t really hold it against the guy too much. And his second UFC fight was against Jason MacDonald, who broke his ankle halfway through round one. I’ve got a rule I typically like to follow in MMA wagering though. Never bet against a guy who’s fighting for his UFC career. Dan Miller is on a three fight losing streak, however it’s against the cream of the crop – Sonnen, Maia, and Bisping. Even though those are huge names, I don’t see the UFC retaining him if he loses. I like Miller in this fight, but not enough to bet him on his short odds.

Nick Osipczak -180 vs Greg Soto +150
Undefeated other than a controversial split decision to Rick Story. Osipczak is a member of England stable Team Rough House. It’s not only his only loss, but only time he’s ever went to a decision, which includes two wins in the UFC. Soto is a student at Pellegrino MMA which has produced such stars as, well, uh, just Kurt Pellegrino really. His only UFC fight was a loss to Matt Riddle via DQ from an unfortunate upkick. I like Osipczak in this fight. He’s got the right team, the right experience, and is larger than Soto too. I like Osipczak for a play.

Nick Lentz -110 vs Andre Winner -120
I definetly like Nick Lentz in this matchup. Winner is 2-2-1 in his last five, 2-1 in UFC, with a win over Rafaello Oliveira not counting much as Oliveira took the fight on short notice. Lentz is 9-0-2 in his last eleven, 2-0-1 in the UFC, and having a win over a prepared Oliveira. His wins over Rob Emerson, draw with Thiago Tavares, and win over Oliviera is much better than Winner’s loss to Ross Pearson, win over Roland Delgado, and win over Oliveira. I’m not quite sure why this is so even in the Vegas eyes, but hey, lucky me, I’m taking Lentz.

Gabe Reudiger +300 vs Joe Lauzon -450
I don’t like any plays on this fight as I think the odds are about right. Reudiger has been out of the big matchups for some time, although riding a 6 fight win streak. Joe Lauzon is getting better all the time, but losses against Sam Stout and Kenny Florian are mars on his record. Nothing terribly strikes me out of this matchup to give me much a gut feeling that makes me think the odds justify any plays.

Nate Diaz -200 vs Marcus Davis +160
I like Marcus Davis here. He only has one loss by submission and that was way back in 2004. That’s Nate Diaz’s gravy – 8 of his 12 wins are via submission. I don’t see Marcus Davis being knocked out either. Although Nate’s hands are certainly a handful, Davis has a strong boxing background. Thus I see this going to a decision. Diaz isn’t good at decisions, he’s 1-4 when it goes the full three rounds. Davis is 3-3 in the same situation. And with a bet on Davis paying 1.6 to 1, all the more reason to bet him. I like a play on Davis.

Kenny Florian -160 vs Gray Maynard +130
I do believe this is the hardest fight to call on the card. Both are so tough, it really could go either way and has Fight of the Night written all over it. My initial gut feeling was the rememberance of Sean Sherk totally dominating the wrestling game against Florian, and Maynard’s superb wrestling skills. However, that poor showing was in 2006, and Florian has been training with perhaps the best wrestler in MMA, GSP, for this fight so I don’t think it’ll be much an issue. Too close to call.

Demian Maia -265 vs Mario Miranda +205
Does Miranda’s black belt in BJJ and Greco-roman wrestling experience mean he can submit Maia? Probably not, but he doesn’t need to. Half of his wins are actually by knockout (6 out of 12). What it DOES mean though is that perhaps he can avoid the submission attempts by Maia (8 out of 12 wins coming by submission). While I do believe Maia is the favorite here, with Miranda’s superior striking and possible ability to defend the submission attempts by Maia, I think the 2 to 1 odds justify a play.

Randy Couture -575 vs James Toney +350
I typically stay away from matchups with these types of odds. Couture is such a favorite, you have to risk a lot to win little. And while Toney can pay big, the huge underdog often doesn’t come in enough to make it worthwhile. If I had to bet, if I was absolutely forced to, I would bet on Toney. With odds those long, often no fighter who makes it inside the cage door is that big an underdog. There’s always the “puncher’s chance”. And if anyone has a “puncher’s chance” who’s ever been inside the ring, it’s James Toney. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

BJ Penn -325 vs Frankie Edgar +250
I think the odds are about right on this one. I think Edgar is probably getting a lot of play. You say, “Hey. He beat him last time. Wasn’t even a split decision. It was unanimous. 2.5 to every dollar? I’m in.” But there’s reasons Penn is a big favorite. And the biggest reason is that a motivated BJ Penn is the most dangerous lightweight fighter in the world today. However, this IS a play on this fight I DO like. Bodog is paying +110 on bets that Penn finishes inside the distance. I see Penn making a statement this fight and finishing it well within 5 rounds. That’s a play I like.

Summary:

Alves +190 to win
Osipczak -180 to win
Lentz -110 to win
Davis +160 to win
Miranda +205 to win
Penn to win inside the distance +110