Before we get to the predictions, some breaking news…

UFC Championship Fighter Fails Drug Test

Chael SonnenAs many of you know, not all drug tests came back clean from UFC 117′s main event, where Anderson “The Spider” Silva defended his UFC Middleweight Championship against Chael Sonnen. Drug tests are mandatory in most states for professional title bouts.

The California State Athletic Commission confirmed Sunday that Anderson Silva failed his post-fight screening. The failed test was due to a banned agent – radioactive spider venom.

Radioactive spider venom is a known performance enhancer, giving superhuman strength, agility, and what’s known as a “spider sense”. This tingly “spider sense” made Silva realize 23 minutes into their bout that he was losing all five rounds to an overrated one dimensional wrestler.

Some fans had previously accused Silva that the marks on his back during the UFC 117 weigh-ins were in fact steroid injection sites. However it’s now believed that these are his third set of limbs coming in.

Their anticipated rematch will most likely be postponed. In the meantime Silva will be fighting the likes of The Hobgoblin and Dr. Octopus.

Silva was not available for comment Sunday, choosing instead to spend the day catching moths.

Obviously, it’s a joke…

On to the predictions!

Bad Example’s UFC 119 Predictions

This is an underdog betting night for me. Three of my five picks are moneyline underdogs. It can be a volatile night – you could lose a wad or make a wad. Manage your bankroll accordingly. Moneylines stolen from BetRoyal.com. Be sure to shop around for the best line for maximum profit.

Melvin Guillard -160 vs. Jeremy Stephens +130

With a combined 20 fights in the UFC, these two guys have been around awhile, but neither have ever had a 3 fight win streak inside the UFC to be in title contention. This’ll change at UFC 119, as both fighters are on two fight winning streaks. Both are knockout artists, with 13 of Stephens’ 18 wins via KO, and 14 of Guillard’s 24 wins via KO. When two high level brawlers are swinging away, is one really that much more of a favorite than the other? I see no reason to assume Guillard could land the perfect one before Stephens, and with Guillard’s susceptibility to submissions (7 out of 8 losses), if Stephens comes in with a smart gameplan, it may not even matter. This is a coin flip, so why not take the underdog?

Evan Dunham -240 vs. Sean Sherk +200

I was shocked at this line. Granted, Dunham is a stud and has a long, bright future. But out of only 11 fights, only his last three are worthy of mention – and two of those were by razor thin split decisions. This is not an elite resume, not yet. Sherk has been fighting the best in the world for years. He’s got three times as many wins as Dunham has fights. They have a common opponent in Tyson Griffin, who Sherk defeated via unanimous decision but Dunham only by split decision. I personally believe you can make a case for Sherk being a rightful favorite in this matchup, so if someone wants to give me 2 to 1 on my money, I’ll take that bet gladly.

Chris Lytle -130 vs. Matt Serra EVEN

I really like this matchup, but what I don’t like is Matt Serra continuing to fight at welterweight. It’s an MMA rule: you fight in the smallest weight class you can. He’s fought at lightweight before, he’s 5 foot 6, he can make lightweight, go to lightweight, goofball. Now as far as the prediction goes… understand that these two have fought before. In 2006 these were the finalists of TUF 4: The Comeback, Serra winning a split decision. Since then Lytle has went 7-5, defeating the likes of Matt Brown (twice) and Brian Foster. Matt Serra has only had four fights since then versus Lytle’s twelve, but against much better competition, defeating and losing to GSP, losing to Matt Hughes, and knocking out Frank Trigg. Because the first match was so close and with Lytle this time having a huge home field advantage being from Indianapolis, I’m leaning towards Lytle.

Ryan Bader -175 vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +145

Another line I was shocked at. Perhaps Bader is being overbet as a TUF winner? Who has Bader beat? Someone tell me. Carmelo Marrero, who was cut from the UFC? Eric Shafer, who was also cut from the UFC? Keith Jardine, who has lost his last five matches straight? Bader just hasn’t fought elite level competition yet, but he will at UFC 119. Nogueira holds wins over Strikeforce -heavyweight- champion Overeem. TWICE. Not to mention Dan Henderson and more recently an impressive performance against Luiz Arthur Cane. Granted, in his last matchup against Jason Brilz he laid an egg, but everyone can have a bad night, and often come back stronger for the next one. I just can’t be a Bader believer until he defeats higher level competition. Again I personally think you could make a case that the moneyline underdog should be a favorite, so I’ll take the underdog again.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic +180 vs. Frank Mir -220

Mirko is another guy who I believe is breaking the MMA rule I mentioned earlier – he should not be fighting at heavyweight when he can fight at light heavyweight. I do believe Cro Cop can make another run at a title, but it won’t be the heavyweight title. The heavyweight picture has changed so much in the last few years and is now much too dominated by fighters who are much too bigger. I believe he should fight at light heavyweight or his career may be shorter than we are even thinking now. There’s lots of reasons to like Mir in this fight. He’ll outweigh him by about 30lbs, much of that muscle. Mir is still getting better, while Cro Cop’s best days may very well be behind him. Cro Cop also suffered a “likely cornea abrasion” recently which certainly doesn’t help his chances any. The moneyline gives Cro Cop a 35% chance of winning; Mir 68%, perhaps worse if you can shop a better line. I think Mir should be a slightly better favorite so this is the one big favorite I’m picking.

Summary:

Jeremy Stephens, Sean Sherk, Chris Lytle, Antonio Rogerio Noguiera, Frank Mir to WIN