Thank you to Jamie Yager for filling the role that was started by Chris Leben and raised to a new depth by Junie Browning. Thank you for once again proving that the easiest way to get your mug some camera time is to be the resident joker/jerk of the house. – Q Harlan

We’ve reached that point where someone’s dreams will be realized while another’s will lay broken on the Octagon mat.

Too dramatic or too cheesy? Either way, it’s the live finale of Season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter where the newest member of the TUF championship fraternity will be crowned.

We made through all the drama with Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz as the coaches. Then the drama with Ortiz pulling out of the fight and being sent home only to be replaced by Rich Franklin and the Franklin putting Liddell on ice in their bout at UFC 115.

If you’ve read the last few predictions, you know how this works. First the quick hitters on the preliminary card and then a little more in depth on the main card.

And away we go.

PRELIMINARY CARD

James McSweeney over Travis Browne
James Hammortree over Chris Camozzi
Josh Bryant over Kyle Noke
Brad Tavares over Seth Baczynski
John Gunderson over Mark Holst

Main Card

Middleweight bout:

Jamie Yager (2-1) vs. Rich Attonito (7-3)

First off thank you to Jamie Yager for filling the role that was started by Chris Leben and raised to a new depth by Junie Browning. Thank you for once again proving that the easiest way to get your mug some camera time is to be the resident joker/jerk of the house.

That said, the last image of Yager from the show is not answering the bell for the third round of his last fight on the show. Never mind the whole Chuck vs. Tito drama, that’s the image that is probably ingrained in the minds of most viewers this season.

Barring a major overhaul of styles since the show quit taping, here’s how this fight will likely play out.

Bell rings. Yager comes out with guns a-blazing. Attonito either gets knocked out or weathers the storm and takes advantage of a gassed Yager.

Prediction: Attonito by TKO in the 2nd round.

Lightweight bout:

Spencer Fisher (24-5) vs. Dennis Siver (15-7)

Do not blink in this one. Both these guys should deliver with non-stop action. If they don’t I’ll be shocked.

Fisher is looking to bounce back from a submission loss to Joe Stevenson last October. That loss snapped a three-fight winning streak for Fisher, the UFC’s resident Nature Boy Ric Flair fanatic.

Siver also had a run of three wins in a row snapped when he fell to Ross Pearson in March.

Prediction: Fisher by unanimous decision in a back-and-forth war.

Middleweight bout:

Chris Leben (19-6) vs. Aaron Simpson (7-0)

Leben’s fights traditionally go one of two ways, he either wins by KO or he doesn’t win. In three of five losses in the UFC he’s been finished by submission twice and knocked out once.

But when he’s been booked to fight on Spike TV, “The Crippler” has gone on to win 8 of 9 fights on free television. Leben’s record on UFC Pay Per Views is a lowly 1-4.

Simpson enters the UFC Octagon for the fourth time after starting with a pair of TKO wins and a split-decision victory. Leben is a step up for the prospect as far as opponents experience goes.

Prediction: Leben over Simpson by TKO.

Light-Heavyweight bout:

Matt Hamill (9-2) vs. Keith Jardine (14-8-1)

Two TUF alumni face each other in a crossroads match. Jardine was on Season 2 of the show and Hamill was a Season 3 cast member.

Hamill comes in after “winning” a disqualification against Jon Jones in December. That was his third win in a row.

Jardine has lost three straight and one more loss could mean his time in the UFC might be over. I don’t think being a TUF alum would be enough to save his spot, regardless of how exciting his performances have been.

Desperation makes for intense performances.

Prediction: Jardine over Hamill by decision.

TUF 11 Middleweight final:

Court McGee (10-1) vs. Kris McCray (6-0)

Both fighters made the most of a second chance on the show and now here they are in the fight for the whole shebang.

I see the outcome of this fight hinging on who has improved the most since they left The Ultimate Fighter house. Especially in the cardio department.

I like McGee’s wrestling and his heavy hands. McCray lives up to his nickname of “Savage” cause he doesn’t stop.

Prediciton: McGee over McCray by TKO.

Until Next Time

I’m Q

CYA

“Words are important, I thank you for hearing my words.” George Carlin