“Both guys will be in full on attack mode. Anything less and they should be checked in for a mandatory 72-hour psych evaluation.”

It’s being called the biggest heavyweight fight in UFC history. Not because the two combatants are certified legends of mixed martial arts or even legends in their own right, it’s being called that on the basic vitals of the principals involved.

Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin headline one of the better cards of the summer… for the Hardcore MMA fan. The (insert full body shiver and audible groan of disgust here) Causal MMA Fan and some “experts”, may think that bouts such as Lytle vs. Brown or Sotiropolous vs. Pellegrino or any other bout on the card may not “be worthy” of being on the undercard of a heavyweight title fight.

That’s why they’re making videos and columns not the fights.

Ok, I’m off the soapbox now. Time to fire up the prognostications and pick some winners. You know how this goes: Quick hits on the prelims, then a little on the Spike TV fights and then the main PPV portion of the card.

PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK HITS

Goran Reljic over Kendall Grove
Gerald Harris over Dave Branch
Daniel Roberts over Forrest Petz
Jon Madsen over Karlos Vemola

SPIKE TV FIGHTS

Heavyweight Bout: Brendan Schaub (6-1) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (18-2-0, 1 NC).

Obvious experience edge for Chris “The Crowbar” Tuchscherer in this one who is 1-1 in his UFC run. Schaub was a finalist on Season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter. He’s also 1-1 in his two trips inside the Octagon.

Prediction: Schaub gets a decision over Tuchscherer.

Light-Heavyweight Bout: Seth Petruzelli (14-5) vs. Ricardo Romero (10-1).

Petruzelli makes his return to the UFC after a pair of losses in his first go-around with the promotion. In four fights outside the Zuffa umbrella, “The Silverback” is 4-0 with…let’s just call in an “interesting” victory over former Elite XC posterboy Kimbo Slice.

Romero is making his UFC debut and is riding a five-fight win streak.

Prediction: Petruzelli over Romero by decision.

MAIN PPV CARD

Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos (12-2) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (21-4)

What we have here is a difference of opinion when it comes to jiu-jitsu vs. wrestling.

Sotiropoulos wants to get the fight to the ground and show off some of the slickest and sickest submissions in the lightweight division.

Pellegrino want to put a fighter on his back and control him until he gets a dominant position and utilize ground and pound.

Since coming off of Season 6 of TUF, Sotiropoulos is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC with three wins by way of submission. Pellegrino has 11 previous trips inside the Octagon under his belt with a record of 8-3 and a streak of four straight wins. Of his eight wins, half have come via submission for “Batman.”

Prediction: Pellegrino over Sotiropoulos by decision.

Light-Heavyweight bout: Krzysztof Soszynski (20-10-1) vs. Stephan Bonnar (14-7)

Rematch time or more accurately continuation time.

Last time these two met inside the cage, an unintentional headbutt opened up Bonnar badly enough that the doctors stopped the fight. But instead of a No Contest, which is what the fight could have been ruled, Soszynski was given a TKO victory. That didn’t set too well with any of the parties involved, so here we are.

Soszynski has won 4-of-5 fights in the UFC. His only loss was a decision loss to Brandon Vera. Bonnar is one of the original TUF alums with a UFC record of 5-6, with three losses in a row.

Needless to say, Bonnar’s back is to the wall. And even though, UFC boss Dana White “loves him,” and he’s a member of the original cast of The Ultimate Fighter Season 1, don’t expect Bonnar to still be on the UFC roster is he suffers a fourth straight defeat. See Keith Jardine.

Prediction: Soszynski over Bonnar by TKO.

Welterweight Bout: Chris Lytle (38-17-4) vs. Matt Brown (13-8)

I was cageside for the first fight between these two three years ago. It was a back-and-forth war that saw Brown almost knock off Lytle in his hometown with an armbar in the first round before Lytle sunk in a guillotine choke for the win in the second round.

Since that time, Lytle has a 4-3 record with two straight wins and has been all but a regular fixture when the Fight of, Submission of or Knockout of The Night awards are handed out.

Brown, who also doesn’t know the meaning of laying back and waiting for the fight to come to him, has a UFC mark of 4-2 and is coming off of a submission loss at UFC 112 to Ricardo Almeida which snapped a three-fight win streak.

Both guys will be in full on attack mode. Anything less and they should be checked in for a mandatory 72-hour psych evaluation.

Prediction: Lytle over Brown by submission.

Co-Main Event Middleweight Bout: Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1-0, 2 NC) vs. Chris Leben (20-6)

This will be Akiyama’s first fight for the UFC since UFC 100 last year when he won a decision over Alan Belcher. For Leben, it’s his first trip back to the Octagon in two weeks.

Leben stepped up on short notice to replace Wanderlei Silva who pulled out after injuring his ribs and knee in training.

On the “fighters strengths” section of Akiyama’s bio on the UFC sight, it mentions “judo, submissions and knockout power.” For Leben, the bio lists “punching power, great chin.”

Let me put it this way, if Akiyama is dumb enough to try and stand and trade with Leben, then he deserves to be on his back and see nothing but the lights above. I don’t think he’s that phony tough/crazy brave or just plain stupid.

Expect Leben to want to wade in and launch some haymakers, especially a left hook. If you’ve watched ANY of Chris Leben’s fights the last five years, you should know what to expect. I look for Akiyama to try and stick-and-move like Michael Bisping did to Leben in England at UFC 89 and try to out point Leben.

The real trick will he what happens when the distance closes. Will Akiyama be able to use his judo to ragdoll Leben? Or will Leben be able to do damage in the clinch and get a takedown for some ground and pound?

Prediction: Akiyama over Leben by decision.

MAIN EVENT FOR THE UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP OF THE WORLD

Heavyweight title bout: Brock Lesnar (4-1) vs. Shane Carwin (12-0)

Two mastodons will be in the Octagon to battle for the belt at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. On a side note, I wish Big John McCarthy was going to be the ref for this one.

Lesnar hasn’t fought in a year. The last time was UFC 100 when he decimated Frank Mir. In that time his health became even more of a primary concern than it should have been in the first place. Now he’s back and is looking to end Carwin’s unbeaten record.

Point blank, Carwin has destroyed EVERYONE he’s been up against. 12-0 record. 7 wins by knockout. 5 by submission. Not one fight got out of the first round.

I like Carwin in this fight for the following reasons.

I believe that ring rust is real. Look at the recent string of fighters that have come back after a long layoff.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson was off for over 14 months. Lost to Rashad Evans.
Chuck Liddell had an extended vacation and then was knocked out by Rich Franklin.
Randy Couture had a layoff of over a year fighting the UFC in court before coming back and dropped the heavyweight title to Lesnar. Then took another off for a nine-month break before coming back to lose a decision to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

And never mind the lack-of-experience in 3 to 5 round war, what happens if Carwin can nullify Lesnar’s primary weapon of takedown and ground and pound?

Carwin comes from the Greg Jackson camp, where if you aren’t a well-rounded fighter you don’t make it through the door 9 times out of 10 chances. Lesnar’s camp in Minnesota is made up primarily of wrestlers. A background that’s proven to be the most successful one to have in MMA.

Lesnar and company had Randy Couture come in to train with them and offer advice, which gives me pause in my prediction. But I called Carwin to win when he destroyed Mir and then I saw that his hands were bigger and, maybe, heavier than Lesnar’s own mits.

Let’s make if official.

Prediction: Carwin over Lesnar by TKO.

Bonus Prediction: IF Lesnar loses, we’ll get Lesnar vs. Mir III later this year just to get that rubber match over with.

Until Next Time

I’m Q
CYA

“Words are important, I thank you for hearing my words.” George Carlin RIP