UFC Live 5 Hardy vs Lytle

UFC Live 5 Hardy vs Lytle

Brian Hemminger and Chad Cunningham are back with another round of CageCraze.com’s ”The North-South Position” and this time they are focused on Sunday night’s “UFC Live 5: Hardy vs Lytle” card in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Chad and Brian were both on the UFC Live 5 Media Call for the event so they heard all about the strategies that Dan Hardy and Chris Lytle are going to use on Sunday. “Apparently, they are going to stand toe-to-toe and try to hit each other while avoiding being hit,” says Chad Cunningham. Well then, after that “expert” analysis we will move straight on to picking the winners of the four main card bouts:

Donald Cerrone vs. Charles Oliveira

(Brian) This fight has all the makings of “The Fight of the Night.” Two exciting lightweight strikers who are both incredibly well-versed on the ground. Something I find very interesting about Donald Cerrone is, despite the fact that he considers himself a striker, and fought as a kickboxer about 15 times professionally, he’s never scored a knockout. Not once. Not even in his kickboxing days. What Cerrone usually does is simply follow a guy to the ground if he hurts them and finishes them with a submission. That will be difficult against Charles Oliveira, the upstart lightweight prospect that UFC fans have been fawning over. Oliveira is incredibly aggressive, both standing and on the ground, throwing diverse strikes repeatedly and if the fight goes to the ground, he’s constantly throwing chains of submissions at his opponents. The only real difference in both fighters is Donald Cerrone’s improving wrestling ability. If he gets in trouble, that’s something he can fall back on and I believe it’ll be enough to win a decision for “Cowboy” come fight night.

(Chad) Looking at this card, almost any fight could potentially win the “Fight of the Night” bonus, but I agree with Brian, this fight is the one to watch. Oliveira comes into the fight with only one loss (against Jim Miller at UFC 124) and his last fight ended as a No Contest due to an illegal knee. Oliveira is hungry, aggressive, and young, but nothing that Donald Cerrone has not seen before. Cerrone is the older veteran in this fight and he is on a four fight win streak, going back to his days in the WEC. Cerrone and Oliveira may look like they have similar experience levels by just looking at their records, but Cerrone’s experience comes against much better adversaries. Out of over 30 fights between the two competitors, only four have gone the distance. I don’t think this one goes all the way. Cerrone will take Oliveira deep into the third round, and will submit the young star. Not a very popular pick, given Oliveira’s skill on the ground, but the “Cowboy” finishes “Da Bronx” in Milwaukee.

Duane Ludwig vs. Amir Sadollah

(Brian) I’m not exactly sure why this fight is on the main card while Joseph Benavidez, widely considered the #2 ranked bantamweight in the world is fighting former WEC bantamweight champion Eddie Wineland on the undercard. I guess neither of them won a season of The Ultimate Fighter. Anyways, this is a showcase match for Sadollah. He looks like he’s finally starting to click with his Muay Thai striking along with his steadily improving jiu-jitsu skills on the ground. Ludwig is a very experienced veteran but even after over a decade fighting, his ground game is pretty weak and his chin has lost a bit of its ability to keep him conscious when nailed with a direct hit. I see Sadollah pressuring Ludwig in the stand-up and either taking this to the ground to score a TKO or riding out a decision.

(Chad) I expected the Benavidez/Wineland fight to be on the main card as well, but there is no use arguing about that call anymore. If you want to know why Benavidez’s fight deserves to be on the live Versus card, check out Brian’s exclusive interview with him from earlier this week: Joseph Benavidez. Now on to the fight at hand, Duane Ludwig vs Amir Sadollah. Duane “Bang” Ludwig is universally known as someone that is willing to just stand in the pocket and trade. Sadollah’s striking may surprise you at first because it is so smooth and he actually has some power behind his punches. I think the key to the fight is for Sadollah to confuse Ludwig with combinations and keep him guessing. If Amir is successful standing, he will be able to set Ludwig up for a takedown where he can utilize his size advantage on the ground. I think Sadollah could submit Ludwig, but it is not likely. I think we will see Sadollah grind out a decision win in this fight.

Jim Miller vs. Benson Henderson

(Chad) Jim Miller said on the UFC Live 5 Media Call that he wanted to take “the hard road” toward title contention, and the UFC has certainly given him the hard road. Miller is 9-1 in the UFC and has won seven straight fights, including wins over Kamal Shalorus, Charles Oliveira, Gleison Tibau, Mark Bocek, Duane Ludwig, and Mac Danzig. That is a “Murderer’s Row” of top-flight UFC talent in the lightweight division. His path to a shot at the 155-lb. crown just got harder as Benson Henderson now stands in his way. “Bendo” can do everything that Miller can do, and he might even be better on the ground. The tradeoff is on the feet where Miller can use his surgical striking to pick apart almost any opponent. I just cannot see either of these fighters getting finished by the other. Miller and Henderson are just that evenly matched. I am forced to go to my (rather sizeable) gut on this pick: Jim Miller will control the pace of the fight and win the standup battle while forcing a stalemate on the ground. Miller wins a paper-thin decision, and moves into a position to fight the winner of “Edgar vs Maynard 3.”

(Brian) There aren’t many people who can stake claim to a seven fight win streak in the UFC. Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva, Royce Gracie, Jon Fitch, Junior dos Santos …….. and Jim Miller. Miller has leaped to the top of the heap in the lightweight division and UFC President Dana White stated that he’s currently the number three guy in the division behind Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar. Miller is extremely well rounded. He’s got a black belt in jiu-jitsu, a strong wrestling background and his striking has improved by leaps and bounds in the past few years to the point where it’s now one of his strengths. Ben Henderson is like an earlier version of Jim Miller. He’s got great wrestling, strong submissions and developing striking, and what he lacks in technique, he makes up for with pure heart. Many men have tried to submit Ben Henderson, and no one has been able to do pull one off on him ever since he started fighting in the WEC. This is a match-up of extremely talented and evenly matched foes and I think Miller’s striking advantage could be the deciding factor in winning him a decision.

Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

(Chad) Okay, I may have dumbed down my analysis for this fight but there just is not much that you need to read into this fight. Dan Hardy has lost three fights in a row and Chris Lytle lost his last fight. Why would the UFC put these guys in the main event of any card, pay-per-view or otherwise? Well, my MMA-loving friends, it is the same reason we love fireworks and action movies: explosions are cool! Everyone knows that Hardy and Lytle are going to enter the Octagon and slug it out, throwing bombs at will. We do not have to worry about Chris Lytle taking Hardy down and laying on him for three rounds. We also know that Hardy is not someone that will be able to take Lytle down, and why would he? Hardy is not at Lytle’s level on the ground and we would see a ground and pound TKO or a submission for Lytle. I think it is very likely that Chris Lytle will out-box Hardy and take less damage over the course of the fight in route to a decision victory. However, I think we will see Lytle submit Hardy. Lytle out-strikes Hardy for two rounds then hurts Hardy, sending him to the mat. Lytle moves in for the kill and submits the Brit in the final round.

(Brian) This is a strange bout for me. In my opinion, Chris Lytle is the more well-rounded and talented fighter than Dan Hardy. That doesn’t mean he’s going to win. If all the pre-fight talk is to be believed, despite having a tremendous advantage on the ground, “Lights Out” plans on meeting Hardy in the center of the Octagon and trading blows until the fight ends or someone goes down. The man just loves to slug it out, and the ridiculous amount of bonuses he’s won in the past four years (eight of them, I believe) is a testament to that. Chris Lytle is 36 years old and nearing the end of his career. He knows he’ll never be champion, but what he does still want to do is have incredible fights. This match against Hardy is going to be fun as hell. It’s going to be two men, wading forward throwing bombs until someone can’t get hit in the face anymore. Dan Hardy’s back is against the wall after suffering three straight losses and something inside me says that he’s going to step up and take care of business, earning a decision victory on Sunday night.

 

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